*All bets are made on PinnacleSports.com. Pinnacle offers the best odds in the industry, charging -105 (5%) as opposed to the industry standard -110 (10%). You win more when you win at Pinnacle. All bets are made and recorded at 1 unit.
Last Week - 1-1 (-.091)
New England (-3) @ Denver - New England (-109) - Loss (-1)
Arizona @ Carolina (-3) - Carolina (-110) - Win (+.909)
Regular Season - 32-29-3 (+.865)
Playoffs - 3-2 (+2.109)
Overall - 34-30-3 (+2.974)
So, here's the thing, I think the Panthers are going to win Super Bowl 50. This is a strong opinion I've had since the end of the championship games, and because of that I jumped on Panthers (-3) when Pinnacle posted the line two weeks ago. However, when the line got to Broncos (+6) later that week, I took that too purely because it was a great value play (buy low, sell high) that's going to give me a chance to middle the game and win both sides if the Panthers win by 4 or 5. Because of this, I don't have a play on the current line, but, gun to my head, I'd take Carolina -5.5. I'm pretty confident the Panthers will win, but I really don't like that number. My reason for liking Carolina is pretty simple. They have one of the best offenses in the league while Denver has one of the worst. Broncos backers will be quick to point out that Denver has the best D in the league, but if they do, the Panthers are 2nd, and I think it's close enough to be a wash. The Panthers have the CLEAR advantage on O and that's why they win.
Although I don't have a bet on the game at the current price for you, I do have some props I love:
Super Bowl Bets:
Total rushing attempts for Jonathan Stewart? Over vs Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts - Over (+110) - J-Stew has passed this number in 10 of his last 11 games. With the Broncos D focused on Cam, I think he easily surpasses this.
Total receiving yards for Greg Olsen? Over vs Under 69.5 Receiving Yards - Over (+101) &
Total receptions for Greg Olsen? Over vs Under 5.5 Receptions - Over (-112) - The Broncos have lock-down corners, but their middle field coverage is not as scary. Olsen is already the focus of the Panther passing game and I think that will be even more of the case today.
Total FG's made by Brandon McManus? Over vs Under 1.5 Field Goals Made - Over (-107) - McManus has been a prime fantasy football kicker target for me all year, because the Broncos often stall in the redzone OR go for long field goals because McManus has a big leg and can connect from 50+. Love this one.
Gross passing yards for Peyton Manning? Under vs Over 235.5 Yards - Under (-112) - Statistically, Peyton Manning has the worst year of anyone ever to play in the Super Bowl. Despite his name, I'm not going to ignore that. The Panthers D is real and there are many ways this can go under, including if Peyton gets injured or pulled.
Who will be Super Bowl MVP? - Ted Ginn Jr (+4238) - It's incredibly likely that Cam (-129) or Peyton (+292) will win MVP if their team wins. However, one scenario where I can see a big longshot like Ginn hitting is if it is a very low-scoring game that is decided by one or two big plays. And Ted Ginn Jr is all about the big plays. He catches one long bomb and returns a punt and this pays off at nearly 43-1.
For fun, final score prediction: Panthers 24, Broncos 17
Thanks for following my NFL bets all year and enjoy the Super Bowl!
Last Week - 1-1 (-.091)
New England (-3) @ Denver - New England (-109) - Loss (-1)
Arizona @ Carolina (-3) - Carolina (-110) - Win (+.909)
Regular Season - 32-29-3 (+.865)
Playoffs - 3-2 (+2.109)
Overall - 34-30-3 (+2.974)
So, here's the thing, I think the Panthers are going to win Super Bowl 50. This is a strong opinion I've had since the end of the championship games, and because of that I jumped on Panthers (-3) when Pinnacle posted the line two weeks ago. However, when the line got to Broncos (+6) later that week, I took that too purely because it was a great value play (buy low, sell high) that's going to give me a chance to middle the game and win both sides if the Panthers win by 4 or 5. Because of this, I don't have a play on the current line, but, gun to my head, I'd take Carolina -5.5. I'm pretty confident the Panthers will win, but I really don't like that number. My reason for liking Carolina is pretty simple. They have one of the best offenses in the league while Denver has one of the worst. Broncos backers will be quick to point out that Denver has the best D in the league, but if they do, the Panthers are 2nd, and I think it's close enough to be a wash. The Panthers have the CLEAR advantage on O and that's why they win.
Although I don't have a bet on the game at the current price for you, I do have some props I love:
Super Bowl Bets:
Total rushing attempts for Jonathan Stewart? Over vs Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts - Over (+110) - J-Stew has passed this number in 10 of his last 11 games. With the Broncos D focused on Cam, I think he easily surpasses this.
Total receiving yards for Greg Olsen? Over vs Under 69.5 Receiving Yards - Over (+101) &
Total receptions for Greg Olsen? Over vs Under 5.5 Receptions - Over (-112) - The Broncos have lock-down corners, but their middle field coverage is not as scary. Olsen is already the focus of the Panther passing game and I think that will be even more of the case today.
Total FG's made by Brandon McManus? Over vs Under 1.5 Field Goals Made - Over (-107) - McManus has been a prime fantasy football kicker target for me all year, because the Broncos often stall in the redzone OR go for long field goals because McManus has a big leg and can connect from 50+. Love this one.
Gross passing yards for Peyton Manning? Under vs Over 235.5 Yards - Under (-112) - Statistically, Peyton Manning has the worst year of anyone ever to play in the Super Bowl. Despite his name, I'm not going to ignore that. The Panthers D is real and there are many ways this can go under, including if Peyton gets injured or pulled.
Who will be Super Bowl MVP? - Ted Ginn Jr (+4238) - It's incredibly likely that Cam (-129) or Peyton (+292) will win MVP if their team wins. However, one scenario where I can see a big longshot like Ginn hitting is if it is a very low-scoring game that is decided by one or two big plays. And Ted Ginn Jr is all about the big plays. He catches one long bomb and returns a punt and this pays off at nearly 43-1.
For fun, final score prediction: Panthers 24, Broncos 17
Thanks for following my NFL bets all year and enjoy the Super Bowl!
